We can all fall into traps: recognising heuristic traps in Antarctica
Antarctica is an environment where conditions can change rapidly, and the consequences of a poor decision can be serious. Strong winds, extreme cold, sea ice, crevasses, whiteouts, and isolation all demand careful decision-making. Everyone can fall into predictable patterns of thinking.
A key responsibility of Field Training Officers (FTOs) at Australian stations is to train expeditioners in field safety practices so they can enjoy trips off station. This involves skills and knowledge-based information, much of which is captured in the Antarctic Field Manual. However, no matter how experienced we are, we can all fall into heuristic traps and therefore they are important concepts to grasp.
Heuristics are mental shortcuts our brains use to make decisions quickly and efficiently. Most of the time they are useful, helping us navigate familiar situations without consciously analysing every detail. But in an unforgiving environment like Antarctica, relying on a mental shortcut can sometimes lead to poor decisions. Six common heuristic traps taught by FTOs in on-station trip leader workshops are particularly relevant to outdoor and expedition environments:
- Familiarity
- Conformity
- Commitment
- Expert Halo
- Scarcity
- Social Proof
Understanding these traps and recognising when they might influence our decisions is an important part of staying safe.
1. Familiarity
“I’ve done this before, so I know what to expect.”
Familiarity means making decisions based on previous experience. Experience is valuable, but it can also create complacency. Imagine travelling across a particular route many times when conditions have always been manageable. This time, however, a particular section of the sea ice looks different. It looks like glossy and shiny, compared to off-white colour. Because the route is familiar, you may unconsciously underestimate these changes. The danger is assuming that because something was safe before, it will be safe today.
How can we avoid the trap?
- Treat every trip as a new trip.
- Check current weather, sea-ice conditions, route information and operational advice rather than relying solely on previous experience.
- Ask yourself: “What is different today?”
Experience should improve our decisions, not replace them.
2. Conformity
“Everyone else seems comfortable, so I should be too.”
Conformity is the tendency to behave in a way that helps us fit in with a group. In Antarctica, teamwork is important, but the desire not to hold up the group, appear inexperienced or create conflict can discourage people from speaking up. Imagine, conditions begin to deteriorate during a trip. You are becoming increasingly uncomfortable with the visibility and wind, but nobody else appears concerned. You might think: “If everyone else is happy to continue, I probably should be too.” Other people may be having the same thoughts. A group can therefore continue into increasingly hazardous conditions simply because nobody wants to be the first to say, “I’m not comfortable with this.”
How can we avoid the trap?
- Speak up early.
- If something doesn't feel right, say so. A concern does not need to be perfectly articulated before it is raised.
- Create a team environment where people can challenge decisions without being seen as difficult or inexperienced.
A simple: “I’m not comfortable with this. Can we stop and reassess?”
May be enough to change the outcome.
3. Commitment
“We’ve come this far; we may as well keep going.”
Commitment is our tendency to remain focused on a goal even when circumstances change. Determination and persistence are valuable in Antarctica, but commitment becomes a trap when completing the objective becomes more important than changing risk. You may have spent considerable time preparing for a field trip. The team has travelled a long way, equipment has been deployed and everyone wants to complete the task. Then conditions deteriorate. The weather is worsening, visibility is dropping, and progress is taking longer than expected. The thought can creep in: “We’ve already invested so much effort. We should keep going.” The effort already invested cannot be recovered but continuing into worsening conditions can significantly increase the risk.
How can we avoid the trap?
- Separate the goal from the decision to continue.
- Before departing, establish clear decision points and turnaround criteria.
- Ask:
- What conditions would make us stop?
- What conditions would make us turn back?
- Has anything changed since we started?
- Are we continuing because it remains safe - or simply because we are committed to finishing?
Turning back is not failure. It is often good decision-making.
4. Expert Halo
“They’re the expert, so they must be right.”
The Expert Halo occurs when we defer our judgement to someone we perceive as more knowledgeable or experienced. Expertise is extremely valuable in Antarctica, but expertise in one area does not automatically make someone the expert in every situation. Imagine an experienced team member is confident that conditions are acceptable. You have concerns but assume: “They've been here much longer than me. They must know better.” So, you remain silent. The experienced person may not have all the information you have, may not have noticed a developing hazard, or conditions may have changed since they assessed the situation.
How can we avoid the trap?
- Respect expertise—but don't outsource responsibility for safety.
- Encourage questions and challenge assumptions respectfully.
- Everyone should feel able to ask: “Can you talk me through why you think this is safe?” or “I've noticed something that concerns me.”
A strong safety culture depends on people sharing information and challenging decisions, when necessary, not on one person always having the right answer.
5. Scarcity
“We don't know when we'll get another chance.”
Scarcity occurs when knowing an opportunity is limited influences our decisions. Antarctic operations can involve narrow windows of opportunity. Weather, sea ice, aircraft availability, vessel movements and operational schedules can all affect when an activity can take place.
Perhaps conditions are marginal, but the team knows the next opportunity may not come for days or weeks. The temptation is to think: “We have to do it now.” A limited opportunity does not make a hazardous situation safer.
How can we avoid the trap?
- Recognise when “we might not get another chance” is influencing the decision.
- Ask: “If this opportunity wasn't scarce, would we still consider this a safe decision?” If the answer is no, scarcity may be affecting your judgement.
Operational windows are important, but they should never override fundamental safety considerations.
6. Social Proof
“Others have done it, so it must be safe.”
Social proof is the tendency to use other people's behaviour as evidence that something is safe or appropriate. In Antarctica, this can be particularly powerful.
You may see that others have travelled across an area, operated in certain conditions or completed an activity successfully. It is easy to think: “They did it, so we can too.”
But the circumstances may not be the same. They may have had different weather, better visibility, different equipment, greater experience, or simply been lucky. Previous success is not proof of current safety.
How can we avoid the trap?
- Assess the conditions in front of you.
- Don't allow footprints, vehicle tracks, other teams or past successful operations substitute for your own risk assessment.
- Ask:
- Are the conditions the same?
- Has the weather changed?
- Is the surface or sea ice different?
- Do we have the same equipment and capability?
- What information might the previous group have had that we don't?
Someone else's safe passage is not a safety assessment for you.
Summary
Recognising the trap before it becomes an incident
Heuristic traps are dangerous because they can be difficult to recognise while they are happening. We may feel we are simply being practical, experienced, committed, or cooperative. That is why awareness matters.
Pause. Think. Speak up.
Antarctica demands sound judgement. Technical knowledge, experience, procedures, and risk assessments are fundamental to safe operations, but so is understanding how our own decision-making can be influenced.
Heuristic traps don't mean someone is careless or inexperienced. They are normal human patterns of thinking that can affect all of us. The key is recognising them.
- When conditions change, pause and reassess.
- When something doesn't feel right, speak up.
- When someone challenges a decision, listen.
- When the safest decision is to stop, turn back or wait for better conditions, remember:
The objective can wait. Your safety can't.
References
- McCammon, I. (2002). Evidence of Heuristic Traps in Recreational Avalanche Accidents. International Snow Science Workshop, Penticton, British Columbia, pp. 244–251.
Note: This is the key original research behind the heuristic-trap concept, examining familiarity, social proof, commitment and scarcity in 598 avalanche accidents.
- New Zealand Mountain Safety Council. Mental Shortcuts: How Trampers Can Avoid Heuristics.
www.mountainsafety.org.nz
- New Zealand Mountain Safety Council. Heuristics and Avalanche Safety.
www.mountainsafety.org.nz
