Summary
1. Marine invasive species can cause irreparable change in new environments, though not all non-native species inevitably cause negative impacts to recipient ecosystems. Knowing which non-native species could establish and have harmful impacts is vital to ensure the efficient use of limited resources for monitoring and surveillance, especially in less accessible regions such as the Southern Ocean. 2. We used ensemble ecosystem modelling to predict an ensemble of plausible future scenarios of introduction and potential establishment of marine non-native species to a known food web near Casey Station, East Antarctica. These scenarios explore potential impacts of successful invasions by five non-native species. 3. Non-native species varied in their capacity to establish in the current food web following a single introduction event, though all could establish in at least some scenarios. Where the non-native species did establish, their abundances mostly increased by between 10 and 1000 times, though some scenarios resulted in a million-fold increase. Although most scenarios showed native species abundances only changed within 10% of the initial abundance, the establishment of an invasive species could plausibly cause substantial abundance declines to all native species. 4. Synthesis and applications. This analysis helps us to better understand the potential range of impacts on native species and aids in developing strategies to help prevent or manage their introduction. We highlight the need for rapid detection methods, such as eDNA, to ensure any non-native species are identified quickly in this ecosystem, particularly for those species we identified as having a high potential for negative impacts and fast population growth.
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