Summary
A proportion of the southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) population that breeds in the Kerguelen Plateau region seasonally migrates between their natal sub-Antarctic islands and moult haul-out locations on the Antarctic coastline. Analyses of survey data collated for one moult location at the Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica, showed that there had been no appreciable change in the timing (phenology) of maximum seal arrivals between 1974 and 2022; however, the maximum number of seals moulting at that site had declined by ~90% over the same time interval. Spatial analyses showed rates of population change were survey area dependent, as seal numbers decreased most rapidly at haul-out areas closest to the permanently occupied Davis Station, suggesting that a relationship exists between seal numbers and human activities. The range of potential factors that contribute to population change for southern elephant seals moulting at the Vestfold Hills includes changes in status at primary source populations, one of which has not been surveyed since the 1990s, and species relocation. Should numbers of southern elephant seals in the Vestfold Hills continue to decrease at the current average rate of change (-7.78 seals/year) the species could vanish from the area by c. 2040.