Project information
Project aim
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources have recently highlighted the need for regular assessments of change in Southern Ocean ecosystems. This project will develop a quantitative framework for assessing change in ecosystems (habitats, species and foodwebs) and, in conjunction with the international program Integrating Climate and Ecosystem Dynamics of the Southern Ocean, undertake the first assessment within that framework, focussing on the Indian Sector. It will develop new statistical methods to achieve this task and for presenting results to stakeholders and the public. The outcomes of the assessment will inform the design and adoption of an observing system for the region to provide robust assessments of future change in these ecosystems, based on a set of sustained observations of cost-effective essential variables, which will be a major contribution to the Southern Ocean Observing System.
Project milestones
Summary of the project achievements 2018/19
This project has engaged the international scientific community (notably IMBER program Integrating Climate and Ecosystem Dynamics, the SCAR Standing Group on Life Sciences, the SCAR-SCOR Southern Ocean Observing System, and the EU project on Mesopelagic Southern Ocean Prey and Predators) to undertake the first Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean (MEASO) and to develop the biological aspects of the Southern Ocean Observing System. It led an international conference in 2018 attended by 178 scientists, stakeholders and policymakers. The conference included a policy forum for discussing ways of integrating science of trends in ecosystems into policy. A 2019 workshop was held to plan the publication of MEASO. Seven other workshops were undertaken in support of MEASO. An important aspect of MEASO was to support and mentor Early Career Researchers in playing leading roles in developing the assessment papers. Significant outputs of the MEASO work to date include: two reviews of data and models available for undertaking ecosystem assessments in the region; an assessment of future change in krill larval habitat indicating that krill larvae may have more habitat in the future; development of methods to quantify changes in habitats for use in decision-making and how habitats are changing differently in different parts of the Southern Ocean; methods for assessing and visualising differences in food web structure between regions; development of a generic network representation of Southern Ocean foodwebs to demonstrate the policy relevance of food web change; and a framework for assessments generally. In 2020, an eBook will be published through Frontiers in Marine Science with 18 core and 10 contributed papers providing syntheses spanning: physical, biological and human drivers of change; impacts on species and food webs; and challenges for policy makers on ecosystem services, the importance of different locations for conserving Antarctic ecosystems in the face of climate change, the rapid changes occurring in the Antarctic coastal environment and the recommended approach to observing change in Southern Ocean Sentinel species. A summary for policy makers, designed to assist with understanding the process and results, will be published with the eBook for use by international bodies such as the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources and the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting.
Summary of the season 2016/17
This project has made significant progress in its second year in three areas. A framework for assessing dynamics and change of Southern Ocean ecosystems has progressed with publication of potential changes in krill habitat and nearing publication of a comprehensive assessment nearing completion of change in habitats in general. A chapter updating climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems has been published as a report of impacts on marine ecosystems generally. The conference on Marine Ecosystem Assessment for the Southern Ocean in 2018 is now in the international calendar and work is progressing on a state of ecosystem report (www.measo2018.aq). The timetable of the project has been revised in light of the delay in project approval. SCAR have endorsed a number of activities in this project, including working towards benchmarking Southern Ocean ecosystems in 2022 and the establishment of a plan for biological observing in the Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS). A regional working group on the Indian Sector of the Southern Ocean has now been established in the SOOS.